Indian Markets Eye Cautious Open Amid Global Weakness on July 16

The Indian stock market, including Sensex and Nifty 50, is expected to open lower on July 16, influenced by global market weakness and Gift Nifty trends. Get expert insights on key support and resistance levels for Nifty, Sensex, and Bank Nifty to navigate today's trade.

Mumbai, India – After snapping a four-day losing streak on Tuesday, the Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are poised for a likely lower opening on Wednesday, July 16, 2025. This cautious sentiment is largely driven by weakness observed in global markets.

Early indicators from the Gift Nifty, a futures contract based on the Nifty 50 traded internationally, signal a negative start. The Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,183 level, indicating a discount of nearly 83 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.

Yesterday, the Sensex closed with a decent gain, rising 317.45 points (0.39%) to finish at 82,570.91. Similarly, the Nifty 50 climbed 113.50 points (0.45%) to settle at 25,195.80.

Here's a detailed look at what market experts are predicting for Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:

Sensex Prediction: A Test of Support and Resistance

Shrikant Chouhan, Head – Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted a "reversal formation" on both intraday and daily charts for Sensex, which is generally a positive sign. For short-term traders, he identifies 82,300 as a crucial support zone. A sustained move above this level could see the pullback continue. On the upside, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 82,900 is expected to act as a significant hurdle. Should Sensex breach this, it could potentially move towards 83,300 – 83,500.

Conversely, if Sensex slips below 82,300, Chouhan warns of a potential retest of the 50-day SMA at 82,000, with further downside potentially dragging the index to 81,600 – 81,500.

Nifty 50: Bullish Candles and Key Levels to Watch

The Nifty 50's slight rebound on Tuesday, closing higher by 113 points and forming a "big bullish candle" on the daily chart, indicates underlying strength. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, suggests this market action points to an attempt at a bounce back from the support levels around 25,000. A sustained move above the immediate resistance of 25,350 could confirm a short-term bottom reversal, opening up more upside in the near term. The immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed at 25,000.

In the derivatives segment, Mandar Bhojane, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst - Research at Choice Equity Broking, highlights that the highest Call open interest (OI) for Nifty 50 is concentrated at the 25,300 and 25,500 strikes, indicating these levels as potential resistance. On the Put side, the highest OI at the 25,000 strike reinforces it as a strong support area.

Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, adds that options writer data shows more "puts writing" at the 25,200 level for the current week's expiry, suggesting a possible upward movement. He believes that with momentum indicators bouncing from the oversold region, Nifty is gaining strength and could test the 25,300 resistance. A break above this could propel the index towards 25,600 - 25,800 in the coming days.

VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, suggests a "sell on the rise" strategy if Nifty 50 opens above 25,350. However, a "dip-buying" opportunity might arise if the index opens at or below 25,000. She expects Nifty 50 to find support between 25,000 and 25,100, while facing resistance near 25,280 and 25,360 today.

Bank Nifty: Pullback and Consolidation Ahead

The Bank Nifty index also showed strength on Tuesday, gaining 241.30 points (0.43%) to close at 57,006.65. This formed a "bull candle" with a higher high and higher low, indicating renewed buying interest.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, points out that Bank Nifty took support near an upward-sloping trendline and moved above its 20-day EMA, signaling improving momentum. He identifies 56,800 - 56,700 as immediate support and 57,200 - 57,300 as a crucial hurdle. A sustained move above 57,300 could lead to a sharp rally towards 57,700, followed by 58,200 in the short term.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd., also notes the formation of a "bullish engulfing candle," signifying strength. He places the short-term hurdle at 57,360, with trendline support around 56,500. He advises a "buy-on-dips" strategy as long as the index holds above 56,500.

Bajaj Broking Research anticipates the Bank Nifty to consolidate within the 56,500 - 57,600 range. Only a move above 57,600 would signal an extended rally towards 58,500 in the coming weeks. They emphasize that the broader trend remains positive, and the current consolidation should be viewed as buying opportunities, with key short-term support at the 56,000 – 55,500 region.